2008 Woodie Awards
Recession concerns should remain just that (at least for now)
James Bassett
Issue date: 1/29/08 Section: Opinion
Well I guess you've heard by now. Yes, that's right, apparently the recession is coming.
And you know what that means. Just like the mad rush of Baltimorians going to stock up on toilet paper and bottled water after the whisper of snow flurries, so should all of you be bunkering down and preparing for the worst. There's only one problem.
No one actually knows if we're in a recession or not. In fact, contrary to what you are being fed by the national media, it's impossible for anyone to know.
The way we actually define a recession is that our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been shrinking for two quarters (actually, approximately four months). You can think of GDP as a measurement of the size of the economy.
And while it does look like our GDP growth is slowing down, so far, it has still been growing.
Now I'm not trying to say that the economy is definitely going to go one way or the other. However, everybody should know that the earliest point this year that we would know for certain if we were indeed in a recession is July.
So while we can't know for sure, there are still some people out there predicting one. And with the tone of their attitudes, you would think we were in certain doom.
They are looking at all sorts of indicators such as unemployment numbers, oil prices, large manufacturing purchases, but even these numbers can hide the truth sometimes.
However part of the reason people are getting so agitated is because they are paying too much attention to the stock market, or at least, they have been paying too much attention to what the media wants them to focus on.
Again, don't get me wrong, I'm all for investing. In fact I think more college students should be looking into the stock market.
However, people need to stop looking at Wall Street like it's the crystal ball to our economic future.
Since the end of summer the market has been going through some major fluctuations, in fact, they have been some of the largest jumps in years.
And you know what that means. Just like the mad rush of Baltimorians going to stock up on toilet paper and bottled water after the whisper of snow flurries, so should all of you be bunkering down and preparing for the worst. There's only one problem.
No one actually knows if we're in a recession or not. In fact, contrary to what you are being fed by the national media, it's impossible for anyone to know.
The way we actually define a recession is that our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been shrinking for two quarters (actually, approximately four months). You can think of GDP as a measurement of the size of the economy.
And while it does look like our GDP growth is slowing down, so far, it has still been growing.
Now I'm not trying to say that the economy is definitely going to go one way or the other. However, everybody should know that the earliest point this year that we would know for certain if we were indeed in a recession is July.
So while we can't know for sure, there are still some people out there predicting one. And with the tone of their attitudes, you would think we were in certain doom.
They are looking at all sorts of indicators such as unemployment numbers, oil prices, large manufacturing purchases, but even these numbers can hide the truth sometimes.
However part of the reason people are getting so agitated is because they are paying too much attention to the stock market, or at least, they have been paying too much attention to what the media wants them to focus on.
Again, don't get me wrong, I'm all for investing. In fact I think more college students should be looking into the stock market.
However, people need to stop looking at Wall Street like it's the crystal ball to our economic future.
Since the end of summer the market has been going through some major fluctuations, in fact, they have been some of the largest jumps in years.
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